My TSP Beacon

A defined process

Fewer decisions to reinvent.

Stay informed without turning every market update into a new allocation decision.

Emotion

Put a process before a reaction.

Fear and excitement can make a plan harder to follow. A defined approach is designed to reduce emotional decision-making.

Headlines

Read the news. Keep your framework.

Economic reports and world events matter. Following a systematic model does not require you to make a separate fund decision for every update.

Narratives

An explanation is not a decision rule.

“Priced in” or “profit-taking” may explain a move after it happens. A story that changes with the outcome is not a rule you could have followed beforehand.

Inside the subscriber portal

Know what needs your attention.

For the live strategies included in your access, the portal puts modeled positions and timing in one place. You remain responsible for every transfer.

Current modeled fund

See where your selected model is positioned. It is separate from your actual TSP balance and holdings.

Next scheduled fund change

Review the planned move, model posting date and target holding date together with its calendar.

Emails about action windows

Choose fund-change reminders for supported live strategies. Our focus is relevant timing, not producing a market opinion just to fill your inbox.

Eligibility and your settings apply. Delivery is not guaranteed; check the portal for deadlines.

Performance in context

Review historical results and benchmarks, including drawdowns and activity. Modeled results are not your personal returns.

Review historical evidence

Understand what you follow

Learn what a fund change means and how discretionary changes can make your results differ from the model.

Learn how to use the product

Strategies

A focused set of approaches. Different levels of activity.

Historical activity counts modeled fund changes per year, labeled IFT/year in the reports below. Learn what a fund change means.

Lower activity

Backtested model

Low Maintenance

A structured seasonal approach with fewer planned fund changes. Designed for a relatively low-touch routine, without daily market opinions.

Historical annualized return: 23.58%
Worst drawdown: -22.80%
Activity: 9.82 IFT/year

Higher activity

Backtested model

Max Performance

A more active seasonal schedule than Low Maintenance. Still systematic, with modeled changes governed by its methodology rather than discretionary headline trading.

Historical annualized return: 24.61%
Worst drawdown: -33.38%
Activity: 20.29 IFT/year

Adaptive exposure

Historical model

Max Resilient

A systematic defensive overlay and staged re-entry. Eligible beta users can view current modeled state when governed source and decision freshness requirements are satisfied. Historical results remain a separate modeled comparison.

Historical annualized return: 21.70%
Worst drawdown: -21.00%

Learn · Following a method

Commentary explains.
Strategy decides.

Economic analysis and financial journalism can offer useful context from knowledgeable people. A modeled decision needs rules defined before its outcome. This product does not claim to know what comes next.

The narrative trap

“Inflation was priced in.” “Investors took profits.” These illustrative explanations may be plausible. But a story that changes to fit what already happened does not establish a repeatable decision rule.

Knowing why the market moved yesterday isn’t the same as knowing where it goes tomorrow. Our approach asks you to understand a method, not choose a new prediction every day.

No change is still an output.

If the strategy hasn’t changed, there may be nothing to do. A quiet period is not a lack of service: staying in the same modeled fund is still an output. Discipline does not require a new market call every week.

This describes model behavior, not a recommendation about your personal account. A holding can still lose value.

One move does not define a method.

A change may look good or poor in hindsight. Review many decisions over the intended horizon, alongside risk and the effort needed to follow them.

Consistency does not make a method suitable for everyone or guarantee a favorable result.

When does a forecast become a usable signal?

“Eventually” isn’t a signal. “A recession is coming” may eventually prove true. Without a timeframe, an action, a condition that invalidates the thesis and a rule for reversing the action, it does not tell you what to do. Then assess whether acting on it actually improved the outcome.

Narratives can move the goalposts. Evaluate a modeled decision against the rules defined beforehand. Future research can improve a method without rewriting the rules used for past decisions.

Is useful information the same as an investment signal?

Useful information isn’t necessarily a useful investment signal. Inflation, employment and interest rates can matter without, on their own, telling you which TSP fund to hold, whether to move today or when to reverse.

Different methods use information differently. Understand the approach you choose and evaluate it against its purpose, risks and intended horizon.

What if I want to wait for tomorrow’s news?

“Should I wait until after the Fed meeting?” is a discretionary timing choice. Skipping or delaying some modeled changes means your personal outcome may no longer represent the model’s performance.

You still decide whether to act. Consider suitability and methodology deliberately; you do not have to treat every headline as a new instruction.

What does a fund change actually mean?

A fund change moves money already in your TSP account between TSP funds. You may know this as an interfund transfer, or IFT; TSP now uses terms including fund reallocation. This is different from choosing where future contributions go.

The portal shows modeled changes. It cannot see your actual holdings or submit a transfer for you.

How are reminders different from market commentary?

Heads-Up Alert, Fund Change Window Open Alert and Final Morning Reminder refer to stages of an eligible fund-change window. Your settings and access determine which reminders are enabled.

They are not daily predictions or guaranteed delivery. Check Fund Changes in the portal for timing even if an email has not arrived. Max Resilient has no live fund-change alerts.

Start with the approach you can understand and evaluate consistently. Compare the strategy approaches.

How It Works

Three strategy choices, informed by four presidential-cycle years.

Planned fund changes

The model uses published seasonal rules to show an allocation and planned changes. It is not a daily market-guessing workflow.

Four presidential-cycle years

The research separates four presidential-cycle years: post-election, midterm, pre-election, and election years because their historical seasonal patterns have not behaved the same way.

Historical research

Compare Low Maintenance and Max Performance, and explore the separate Resilient historical report. Backtests are not actual subscriber returns and do not guarantee future results.

Subscriber action remains manual

Subscribers see the current target, upcoming reminders, and calendars. The portal does not access TSP accounts or place interfund transfers.

Why the four years differ

Year 1

Post-election

Historically positive on average, but less strong than Year 3.

Beacon treats the first year as its own seasonal environment.

Year 2

Midterm

Historically the weakest average year, and often more volatile.

Research distinguishes stronger and weaker windows within the year; the whole year is not alike.

Year 3

Post-midterm / pre-election

Historically the strongest average year of the four.

The model recognizes a different seasonal opportunity set following midterms.

Year 4

Election year

Historically positive on average, with uneven periods.

The model follows predefined seasonal behavior; it does not predict an election winner.

These are broad historical stock-market tendencies, not Beacon backtest returns. My TSP Beacon does not try to predict elections. Its research studies variation across the four presidential-cycle years and within each year to understand when models historically favored different TSP fund exposures. Historical tendencies do not guarantee that future cycles will behave the same way.

Active vs Passive

Why consider a rules-based active approach?

Passive

A lifecycle or buy-and-hold approach can be easier to maintain and may fit people who do not want to monitor a transfer calendar.

Seasonal methodology

A rules-based active approach can make sense for subscribers who want a published seasonal model, visible alerts, and a record of planned changes.

How to compare

Compare return, drawdown, volatility, activity, and the burden of manual execution. The seasonal methodology does not imply active is categorically better for every investor.

Historical Model Performance

Historical 5-Year Model Comparison

Fixed historical comparison window: Dec. 28, 2020–Dec. 26, 2025. YTD model performance uses available validated TSP data and updates separately.

Growth of $10,000. 1,245 common observations. Hypothetical model results, not actual subscriber returns.

Low Maintenance $22,189 Max Performance $30,188 Max Resilient $25,153 I Fund Buy & Hold $15,818 C Fund Buy & Hold $19,940 S Fund Buy & Hold $13,715

Methodology & data notes

The seasonal methodology has not changed. We updated execution modeling to reflect TSP valuation/business days and monthly transfer limits. Historical performance figures have changed as a result. Prior versions remain preserved for audit and historical reference. I, C and S use official TSP prices. Max Resilient uses historical model/backtest performance on the same dates. These are not actual subscriber returns. This historical comparison is separate from current governed modeled state. Public chart labels do not disclose subscriber action dates.

Historical model results are hypothetical and shown for informational and educational purposes. They do not represent actual subscriber accounts or actual subscriber returns.

Backtested and reconstructed results use strategy rules and historical data and assumptions, benefit from hindsight, and have inherent limitations. They do not establish that the same results would have been achieved in real-time use.

TSP fund and lifecycle-fund benchmarks are shown solely for comparison. Differences in allocation, risk, trading frequency and methodology mean benchmark results are not directly equivalent to model results.

Past or modeled performance does not guarantee future results. My TSP Beacon provides educational model information and does not guarantee gains, prevent losses, or represent that any user will achieve the results shown.

Strategy / Benchmark	$10,000 Ending Value	Annualized Return	Volatility	Sharpe	Sortino	Worst Drawdown	Activity
Low Maintenance	$22,189.11	17.30%	16.94%	1.02	1.53	-22.80%	9.82 IFT/year
Max Performance	$30,187.89	24.76%	16.90%	1.47	2.25	-19.73%	20.29 IFT/year
Max Resilient	$25,152.65	20.29%	13.28%	1.53	2.29	-21.00%	Not reported
I Fund Buy & Hold	$15,817.68	9.62%	14.84%	0.65	0.94	-29.13%	Model schedule
C Fund Buy & Hold	$19,939.69	14.82%	16.99%	0.87	1.26	-24.49%	Buy & Hold
S Fund Buy & Hold	$13,714.75	6.53%	22.67%	0.29	0.41	-36.21%	Buy & Hold

Long-Term Historical Context

Long-term historical context: each strategy uses its own sample dates below. Different-period returns are not an apples-to-apples comparison or actual subscriber performance.

Annualized return

Low Maintenance 23.58%

Max Performance 24.61%

Max Resilient 21.70%

Transfers per year

Activity is shown only where reported by the model.

Low Maintenance 9.82 IFT/year

Max Performance 20.29 IFT/year

Long-Term Research Context	CAGR	Annualized Std Dev	Sharpe	Worst Drawdown	IFT/year
Low Maintenance 2014-12-29 through 2025-12-26	23.58%	15.93%	1.41	-22.80%	9.82 IFT/year
Max Performance 2014-12-29 through 2025-12-26	24.61%	17.53%	1.35	-33.38%	20.29 IFT/year
Max Resilient 2016-01-06 through 2026-07-10	21.70%	12.92%	1.60	-21.00%	Not reported

Full-history volatility uses daily returns, annualized over 252 sessions. Sharpe uses the arithmetic mean return and a zero risk-free rate; the five-year table uses annualized compound return. Different sample periods are not directly comparable.

Detailed calendars, current allocations, and alerts are available to subscribers.

The Beta

A guided start with My TSP Beacon.

Invitation-led access

Request an invitation to try the beta. An access request does not guarantee an invitation.

Your beta experience

Explore model guidance, calendars and historical performance for the strategies included in your invitation. You make every TSP transfer yourself.

Using an invite

Sign in, then enter your invite code and review the beta acknowledgements. Access follows the terms of your invitation.

After beta

Pricing and plan details will be announced before paid launch. Beta access does not automatically become a paid subscription.

Explore planned packages

Beta Access

Request beta access.

Beta access is by invitation. Requesting access does not create an account or guarantee an invitation.

Have an invite code? Sign in to redeem your invite.

Using the Beta

What to know before joining.

Access is limited to the strategies and dates in your invitation. Max Resilient is available to eligible beta users; current modeled state is shown only when governed source and decision freshness requirements are satisfied. My TSP Beacon cannot access your TSP account or automate transfers.

Cut through the noise. Follow the strategy.